Trumpism Simplified

 The suffix "-ism" is used to denote an ideology, belief system or thoughts. Ideologies for centuries have been used to mobilize masses at large scale for some lofty goals or purpose. So, "Trumpism", a very recent phenomenon in USA's domestic politics is also a kind of belief system propped up by billionaire business tycoon Donald Trump in mid 2010s.

So, what Trumpism is in strict sense. It is not an ideology in typical sense because ideologies have certainty in ends and coherence in means, exactly the things missing in Trumpism. Because when it comes to Donald Trump, be assured of surprises, unpredictability and summersaults every here there, now and then. But despite these deficiencies the lofty goals of "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) remains the force to mobilize a very large section of US population. So, let us try to understand this unique phenomenon which is all set to take over White House as 47th President of United States of America. Considering the status of US as sole superpower, anyone occupying the Oval Office has impacts not just in Americas but the whole world in general.

When it comes to US domestic politics, there is a near unanimity, atleast among liberal lobby, to dub Mr. Trump as the most polarising figure in countries history. And the assumption is not far fetched or completely wrong. The rise of Trumpism is rooted in exploiting the fissures in the American society on the racial and ethnic lines which can be traced centuries back. This division has not just persisted but came to the fore with the election of Barack Obama, an African American as the president that too for two terms. The so called white people thought it as the decline of Americanism which for them was synonyms to white supremacy. Another aspect is that US despite all the technological and economical progress remains a highly patriarchal and xenophobic society. The rising immigration and women's right to abortion became hot potatoes for Mr. Trump to capitalise on and boy he did it quite well. His fear mongering about immigration went to the extent of calling people from Haiti as dog and cat eaters. In his first tenure as president he imposed a Muslim travel ban from certain countries. It completely sums up his agenda as well as the courage to do it at any cost irrespective of consequences. 

Another rhetoric that is running through entire US is the absolute right of freedom of speech and the right to bear arms, both guaranteed by the US constitution. Backed by the takeover of Twitter by his billionaire buddy Elon Musk, Mr. Trump has turned into an free speech absolutist. It has led to peddling of lies, falsehood and claims devoid of any concrete fact rather trumped up by individual fantasies. When it comes to bearing arms, the last figure I remember claimed that there were over 400 million private arms in US with population of near 350 million. So, in short almost every American owns a weapon. Despite the chain of gun firing incidents including two assassination attempts on Mr. Trump himself, he remains an absolute supporter of the right of bearing arms. 

However, the biggest burning issue in US domestic politics is of immigration, a issue Mr. Trump has fully capitalised on as mentioned earlier. His appointment to Immigration and Border Control Department whom he prefers to call "Boder Czar" reflects the centrality of immigration in his second tenure. He has already promised to make Mexico and Colombia face the consequences of failing to control illegal immigration. Also to note is that he is going to double down on his efforts to build wall across US-Mexico border. His much hyped plan to carry out the largest deportation in USA's history, may cost $300bn to the exchequer as claimed by many studies. 

As mentioned earlier, any individual making choices in Oval Office will create global ramifications. When it comes to Mr. Trump, he is an "America First" pioneer who will do everything at his disposal to eventually benefit US. Though one can claim that national interests are the primary goal of foreign policy but a reasonable leader will take a calculated middle path to secure interests without substantially harming others prospects. But that is not the case with Mr. Trump who is less likely to be bothered by others' concerns. His views on UN, withdrawal from Paris Climate Deal, UNESCO and Human Rights body reflects his disregard to these bodies. Considering the fact that US remains the largest fund contributor to these institutions, they fear getting diluted under new US president. On the other hand US may also retreat from global arena and bilateral and multilateral commitments which it made like retreat from West Asia. The global institutions like WTO, WHO shaped and nurtured by US led order are lying in disarray and less likely to revive under Trump presidency. The challenge that emerges is of a free rider China whose commitment in providing global good is as suspicious as it can get leading to rise of "Kindelberger Trap", a phenomenon which implies the lack of global goods like free and open sea lines of communication, climate change leadership, fight against international terrorism which US has provided though for it's own agendas.

On geopolitical front, prospects due to return of Mr. Trump is a mixed bag. While his desire to pull US out of global conflicts may lead to some solutions to wars in Ukraine and Gaza but his tone in this regard is causing alot of unease in western world including US domestic politics itself. When it comes to Ukraine, Mr. Trump is no fan of giving blank cheques to Ukraine and hence may coerce President Zelensky to accept a deal undermining Ukrainian territorial integrity. The promptness with which President Putin of Russia expressed his desire to have talks with Mr. Trump reflects that even he is breathing a sigh of relief. On Gaza front, Mr. Trump may give more free hand to PM Netanyahu's misadventures on Palestinian issue and larger West Asia in general with Iran as it's focus. Amid all this policy uncertainties, NATO's relevance is also in question. Though it would be too early and too foolish to even anticipate the decline of NATO irrespective of whosoever occupies White House but NATO allies may be arm twisted to contribute more towards it's defence budget.

The biggest geopolitical and geo-economic showdown is going to be East Asia and Indo-Pacific. The US-China rivalry has already been dubbed as Cold War 2.0 but the prospects of it intensifying is pretty high. The trade war between two trans- pacific giants witnessed during Trump 1.0 had ripple effects on global trade, it may get diversified with special focus on Semiconductors, AI, Quantum Computing and manufacturing in general. As India's Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar aptly said that 'for USA, national security is economic security and economic security is trade surplus'. So, USA which is running billions of dollars of trade deficits with China is going to impose many tariff barriers for Chinese imports and will also face retaliatory moves from China. 

On strategic front, the Taiwan Straight as well as South China Sea will remain focus point as well as infliction point for confrontation. Though President Biden openly declared US's armed support to Taiwan in case of Chinese attempts to takeover, Mr. Trump is likely to tone down on such rhetoric. However, USA's long game to contain China through first and second island chains will continue. We may see more arms sales to ASEAN nations which will be mutually beneficial to both USA and ASEAN countries. However they may face dilemmas about USA's security commitments considering Mr. Trump's rigid and ultra nationalist rhetoric.

One can't deny a G-2 (USA and China), which was supposedly put forth by Barack Obama to accommodate China as the second pole of the global order. If Chinese can play to Mr. Trump's ego and America First narrative by giving trade and manufacturing concessions, there is no denying that Mr Trump will not hesitate to abondon his allies and partners whom he continuously accuse of benefitting at the cost of USA. 

Amid all this frenzy about US presidency, let us look at what is in store for India. It is unquestionably true that India enjoys a bipartisan support across US Congress and White House. Whosoever has occupied the US presidency since the onset of 21st Century has been more or less India friendly for reasons very obvious. However with Mr. Trump the prospects of the strenthing of relationship are higher. The recent irritants between the two democracies on Pannun and Adani issue is less likely to hamper the relationships. Also Mr. Trump will be less inclined to do moral lecturing to India on issues like democracy, minority rights and religious freedom which are anyway much better than that of USA atleast in today's terms. 

On security and technology front the partnership is going to be broad based and multidimensional. The co-production, co-development and transfer of critical technologies under iCET initiative has already set the balls rolling. Considering India's diverse defence needs, there is going to be large scale procurement of new defence systems much to the liking of President Trump. The US Space Force supporting India in establishment of cutting edge chip fabrication plant, General Electric sharing F-414 engines for India's indigenous aircraft Tejas reflects the desire and commitment on both sides. 

However challenges are going to arise primarily on trade front. Everybody remembers President Trump during his first presidency calling India the "Tariff King" on Harley Davidson issue. And even during runnup to his reelection beed, he threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all imports irrespective of the country. Another area of difference can be the H1B visas which has been a silver line for India's professionals especially IT specialists. Though Mr. Trump and his brother in arms Elon Musk have been supportive of legal immigration especially of quality engineers yet the process can be tightened to discourage large scale influx which remains the biggest poll promise for Donald Trump in race to 2024. On China issue, India though can count on USA because of USA's own vested interests but India can't base it's China policy based on a third party support and certainly not USA. I mean we would be naive to forget what Henry Kissinger, a known China dove once said that it is dangerous to be America's enemy but fatal to be it's friend. We certainly can't make a fatal mistake in today's realpolitik.

To conclude, I must say that Trump 2.0 is going to more assertive, aggressive and authoritative in his approach. Considering the popular support at home and control over the US trifecta (White House, Congress and Supreme Court), he is going to pursue his nationalist and populist agenda. While USA's domestic politics is far away from overcoming Trumpism in times to come, his foreign policy choices are the ones to look for.